【券商聚焦】国泰海通维持小米集团(01810)“增持”评级预计小米汽车有望在Q3实现经营利润层面盈利

金吾财讯

Oct 30

金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券研报指，小米集团(01810)汽车交付量逐月爬坡，该机构预计Q3小米汽车交付量接近10.9万台。ASP方面，随着Yu7交付放量，该机构预计Q3汽车ASP环比有所提升，对应Q3汽车销售收入约292亿元。规模化效应凸显叠加产线降本增效效果显著，该机构预计小米汽车有望在Q3实现经营利润层面盈利。受中国区销售占比环比下滑、存储涨价影响，该机构预计Q3小米手机毛利率环比小幅下滑0.5pct至11%。据卢伟冰10月23日披露，9月底发布的小米17系列总销量同比上代增长30%、Pro版本占比超过80%，高端化成效显著，该机构判断或将一定程度抵消Q4存储涨价影响。受Q3传统淡季及国补退坡影响，该机构预计IOT收入同比+6%至277亿，环比有所下滑，预计IOT毛利率环比+0.5pct至23%。互联网贡献稳定收入及毛利，预计Q3互联网收入同比+7.7%，毛利率75.4%环比持平。该机构调整公司FY2025E-FY2027E的营业收入分别为4823/6347/7506亿人民币（前值为4891/6418/7584亿人民币）；调整经调整净利润预测为436/679/833亿人民币（前值为454/681/836亿人民币）。调整小米集团目标价至65.7港币，维持“增持”评级。

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