智通财经APP获悉，星展发布研报称，长城汽车(02333)正加快出海以提升增长动能，因预期中国国内汽车市场将于2026年放缓。星展降长城汽车目标价由23港元降至19港元，相当于预测明年市盈率10倍(原先为预测今年市盈率12倍)，维持“买入”评级。
该公司已规划海外生产网络，以支持销售并改善投资回报。例如，其巴西工厂(产能5万辆)计划进军拉丁美洲的墨西哥、阿根廷及智利，及利用泰国工厂(产能8万辆)触及东盟/亚洲市场。这亦应有助于部分缓解俄罗斯市场增长放缓的影响，因俄罗斯占其汽车销售业务约10%。这些设施将生产其哈弗系列(H6、H9等)、ORA及更多车型，以缩短交货时间。
星展表示，长城汽车第三季度毛利率压力(同比减1.3个百分点;按季度减1.6个百分点至17.2%)，主要因新车型广告及推广相关费用增加(部分与市场竞争相关)，及直销通路网络扩张。星展预期，扩张后的网络所带来更高销售效率，有望令2026的产品毛利率水平维持在约19%的更稳定水平。因此，星展银行预计，长城汽车2024至2026盈利年均复合成长率为10%，受营收增长率13.7%增长作为支撑。
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