农林牧渔行业点评报告：年前生猪供给压力逐步积累，猪价低位运行去化延续

开源证券

Nov 12, 2025

（以下内容从开源证券《农林牧渔行业点评报告：年前生猪供给压力逐步积累，猪价低位运行去化延续》研报附件原文摘录）行业：年前生猪供给压力逐步积累，猪价低位运行去化延续10月生猪超卖猪价探底，11月出栏收缩有限，年前生猪供给压力逐步积累。据涌益咨询，2025年10月全国生猪销售均价11.69元/公斤，环比-10.74%，同比-33.56%。涌益监控样本2025年10月屠宰量503.52万头，环比+...

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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n农林牧渔行业点评报告：年前生猪供给压力逐步积累，猪价低位运行去化延续\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-12 10:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251112100803a49b1723&s=b><strong>开源证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>（以下内容从开源证券《农林牧渔行业点评报告：年前生猪供给压力逐步积累，猪价低位运行去化延续》研报附件原文摘录）行业：年前生猪供给压力逐步积累，猪价低位运行去化延续10月生猪超卖猪价探底，11月出栏收缩有限，年前生猪供给压力逐步积累。据涌益咨询，2025年10月全国生猪销售均价11.69元/公斤，环比-10.74%，同比-33.56%。涌益监控样本2025年10月屠宰量503.52万头，环比+...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251112100803a49b1723&s=b\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1237","symbol_name":"包装食品与肉类","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251112100803a49b1723&s=b","article_id":"2582450933","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251112100803a49b1723&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582450933","pubTimestamp":1762913277,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"行业：年前生猪供给压力逐步积累，猪价低位运行去化延续10月生猪超卖猪价探底，11月出栏收缩有限，年前生猪供给压力逐步积累。10月生猪超卖，实际出栏较计划超额完成从而导致11月生猪出栏环比收缩，但展望后市，行业均重高企、二育存量居高，11月出栏有限收缩不改年前生猪供给增量趋势，年前猪价或持续承压。大猪出栏下降存栏提升，后市供给或进一步宽松。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK1237":"包装食品与肉类","01610":"中粮家佳康","BK1549":"食品股","BK1603":"猪肉概念"},"translate_title":"Comment report on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry: The pressure on the supply of live pigs gradually accumulated years ago, and the low price of pigs continued","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01610":0.9},"content_text":"（以下内容从开源证券《农林牧渔行业点评报告：年前生猪供给压力逐步积累，猪价低位运行去化延续》研报附件原文摘录）行业：年前生猪供给压力逐步积累，猪价低位运行去化延续10月生猪超卖猪价探底，11月出栏收缩有限，年前生猪供给压力逐步积累。据涌益咨询，2025年10月全国生猪销售均价11.69元/公斤，环比-10.74%，同比-33.56%。涌益监控样本2025年10月屠宰量503.52万头，环比+10.40%，同比+9.55%。涌益样本10月生猪出栏较计划完成率105.70%，11月计划出栏较10月实际出栏-3.27%。10月生猪超卖，实际出栏较计划超额完成从而导致11月生猪出栏环比收缩，但展望后市，行业均重高企、二育存量居高，11月出栏有限收缩不改年前生猪供给增量趋势，年前猪价或持续承压。大猪出栏占比低于2024年同期，存栏占比同环比提高，大猪后市供给或宽松。截至2025年11月6日，涌益样本生猪出栏结构中150kg以上占比4.89%，周环比+0.36pct，同比-0.85pct，大猪出栏占比低于2024年同期。从My steel样本生猪月度存栏结构看，2025年10月行业140kg以上大体重肥猪存栏占比环比+0.05pct，同比+0.29pct。大猪出栏下降存栏提升，后市供给或进一步宽松。冬季猪肉消费向好驱动毛白价差改善，冻品库存率偏高或对后市猪价形成压制。截至2025年11月6日，涌益监控样本毛白价差4.18元/公斤，环比+0.08元/公斤，同比-0.84元/公斤。全国冻品库容率为20.03%，同比+4.06pct，冻品累库或对后市猪价形成压制。10月生猪养殖亏损加深，涌益样本行业能繁存栏环比去化幅度加大。受猪价下行影响，行业10月自繁自养亏损167.97元/头，亏损环比加深。涌益样本2025年10月能繁存栏环比-0.77%。截至2025年11月7日，规模场7kg仔猪价格反弹至198元/头，当前时点进入冬季仔猪补栏淡季，仔猪价格或持续承压，能繁去化有望延续。企业：10月上市猪企生猪出栏均价环比下跌截至2025年11月10日，12家上市猪企发布10月生猪销售数据。10月合计出栏生猪1694.69万头，同比+29.29%。牧原股份、温氏股份、新希望、正邦科技、天邦食品、大北农、中粮家佳康、天康生物、唐人神、金新农、京基智农、神农集团10月出栏量分别为707.60、389.28、168.51、90.78、68.60、46.00、58.50、30.35、61.92、16.28、23.33、33.54万头，分别同比+13.2%、+45.7%、+34.4%、+67%、+41.6%、+45.2%、+82.2%、+6.8%、+24.5%、+67%、+27.6%、+65.4%。出栏均重方面，大北农10月商品猪均重110.1公斤/头，环比-18.8公斤/头。销售均价方面，主要10家上市猪企销售均价环比下跌，牧原股份、温氏股份、新希望、正邦科技、天邦食品、大北农、中粮家佳康、天康生物、京基智农、神农集团10月商品猪销售均价分别为11.55、11.57、11.28、11.30、11.34、11.43、11.58、10.97、11.87、11.04元/公斤，分别环比变动-10.3%、-12.2%、-12.5%、-11.4%、-11.4%、-11.5%、-10.4%、-9.9%、-12.7%、-13.9%。风险提示：猪价异常波动、疫病不确定性、上市公司养殖成本下降不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}