策略深度报告:2026年 美股AI泡沫会破裂吗?

东吴证券股份有...
Nov 16, 2025

我们认为2026 年刺破美股AI 泡沫的可能不是产业周期和股票估值,更可能是宏观和政治周期。一、泡沫只看估值吗?市场以估值、Capex、自由现金流等基本面视角判断、解读美股AI 泡沫。华尔街对AI 是否有泡沫这个问题本身就有分歧。参照2019 年Goldfarb 和Kirsch 出版的《泡沫与崩溃:技术创新的繁荣与萧条》,58 个历史泡沫涵盖4 个特征:不确定性,对应当前AI 商业化落地方向和节奏...

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