金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示，稳定宏观环境提供良好经营基础，市场份额持续头部集中。该机构认为提振消费将是宏观中长期维度的政策重点之一，为购物中心经营提供良好的环境基础；渠道方面，线下占比和购物中心整体份额相对稳定，其中后者约为社会零售总额的一成左右。行业内部，该机构认为头部集中趋势有望延续：一方面，品牌和消费者两端的市场集聚将持续推动超额同店增长，存量组合中的新项目爬坡亦有望有所贡献；另一方面，集团资金实力与运营商专业能力亦推动头部商管企业在管项目规模实现较同业更快的成长。商管企业战略主旋律仍为深化运营，优质重奢场经营复苏有望延续。该机构认为购物中心运营商将在传统项目深化运营、新项目场景模式创新等方面不断进步以提升总体零售额；行业租售比料平稳中略显均值回归，盈利能力料稳中微升。重奢商场方面，该机构观察到其整体在2025年内呈现经营逐步修复的态势。展望2026年，该机构认为整体国内重奢消费或仍呈温和增长态势，但同比增速或仍略弱于非奢；而重奢商场则有望持续受益于品牌端的店铺整合集聚及自身的积极调整改造，体现出强于大市的经营表现。
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