供应缺口支撑铝价上行 瑞银上调中国宏桥(01378)目标价至38.6港元

智通财经
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智通财经APP获悉,瑞银发布研究报告指出,中国宏桥(01378)作为行业龙头,在供应受限、价格向好的环境下有望持续受益。基于更高的铝价预测,瑞银将宏桥的2026年预测净利润上调11%,2027年预测净利润上调16%。该行重申中国宏桥(01378)“买入”评级,并将目标价从28港元上调至38.6港元。

供应端受限成关键逻辑,供需缺口持续扩大

瑞银全球金属与矿业团队测算,2026至2027年全球原铝需求年增速将维持4%,而供应端增速仅1%-2%,市场或陷入短缺格局,进而带动显性库存回落,为铝价提供强劲支撑。

具体来看,国内铝业产能受政策严格管控,上限锁定在4520万吨/年,当前产能利用率已超98%,接近政策红线。新增产能方面,2026年仅有天山铝业20万吨/年扩建项目及扎鲁特旗35万吨/年新建项目计划投产,2027年则无新增产能规划。海外市场方面,主要供应增量集中于印度尼西亚,但受部分项目可能减产的影响,2026-2027年全球原铝供应年增长率预计仅为1%-2%。同期全球铝需求将预期保持4%的年增长率,全球铝市供需缺口有望进一步扩大。

铝价预测同步上调,铜价上涨促使铝替代需求

基于供需偏紧的核心判断,瑞银上调了今明两年铝价预期:2026年中国铝价预测上调5%至22000元/吨,2027年上调7%至23000元/吨;伦敦金属交易所铝价预测也被上调约15%,主要得益于铜价上涨催生的铝替代需求增长。

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