艾柏斯资产管理公司首席经济学家鲁珀特·汤普森在最新报告中指出，英国政府放弃预算案加征所得税计划后，料将转而提高多项小型税种以填补财政缺口。该机构测算显示，增值税率分阶上调、遗产税起征点冻结及资本利得税优化调整，可能填补约90亿英镑财赤。
汤普森分析称：“政府财政规划缺乏战略纵深，过度侧重短期平衡，这直接导致上周英国十年期国债收益率突破4.3%关口。”不过他强调，当前债市波动与2022年利兹·特拉斯政府无资金支持的减税计划引发的“金边债危机”有本质区别——目前利差溢价较两年前低150个基点。随着市场等待本周三发布的英国通胀数据，十年期国债收益率已从上周高点回落至4.17%。
值得关注的是，英国预算责任办公室预计，2024年政府财政赤字占GDP比重将升至3.4%，创2020年以来新高。但穆迪最新报告指出，目前英国债务结构中以本币计价的长期国债占比达98%，显著缓释了国际资本流动冲击风险。
责任编辑：王许宁
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