金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，认为中国香港房地产市场的复苏将是一个循序渐进的过程，且涵盖不同资产子板块。该机构预计投资者将优先布局住宅板块的复苏；其次是优质零售资产；最后是核心写字楼。该机构将行业评级由“同步”上调至“领先”。新鸿基地产(00016)与领展房托(00823)分别为该机构住宅与商业物业的首选标的，该机构预计两者未来1–2年有望受益于行业复苏与多重催化剂。该机构认为以下变化是市场复苏的关键支撑：1）宏观不确定性的改善（尤其是降息）；2）政策环境的重大宽松；3）基础需求驱动因素的回归。该机构预计，2025年住宅租金水平将上涨约3-5%，2026年和2027年则按年将上涨约3%，并预计住宅价格在2025/2026/2027年分别上涨35%/5%/5%。同时，该机构预计未来12个月核心地段零售租金温和增长，社区商场租金增长约3–5%。写字楼方面，过去18个月空置率已见顶，核心CBD连续八个季度录得正净吸纳量，该机构预计2H25租金企稳，并为2026年反弹奠定基础。
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