【券商聚焦】第一上海维持快手(01024)“买入”评级 指可灵AI商业化提速 广告需求端应用空间广阔

金吾财讯
Dec 04

金吾财讯 | 第一上海研报指出,快手(01024)Q3实现收入355.54亿元(YoY+14.2%),主要由线上营销收入和电商收入增长贡献。毛利为194.34亿元(YoY+14.9%),毛利率54.7%(YoY+0.4pct);经营利润44.89亿元(YoY+12.6%),经调整利润49.86亿元(YoY+14.0%),beat一致预期3.1%。第三季度,快手DAU达4.2亿(YoY+2.1%),MAU为7.3亿(YoY+2.4%),双关用户日均私信渗透率同比提升超3%,用户粘性强。三季度末现金及等价物为129亿元,广义现金储备超1066亿元,现金头寸充足。截至目前,公司2025年回购金额约22.8亿港元,并派发特别股息20亿港元,持续提升股东回报。期内,公司线上营销服务收入201亿元(YoY+14.0%),占比56.5%,营销链路转化效率得到提升。外循环广告层面,生活服务行业、短剧为主的内容消费拉动增长,全自动投放UAX渗透率达到70%。在内循环层面,全站推广产品的总营销消耗占内循环总消耗比例超65.0%。基于AI能力,快手优化高质量商家的流量配置与泛货架场的人货匹配,优化经营环境。直播业务于本季度实现收入96亿元(YoY+2.5%),主要关注内容与生态可持续性发展。该机构表示,快手净利润增速大幅跑赢营收,盈利质量持续优化;用户基本盘稳固,为业务增长筑牢根基。电商板块成为核心增长引擎,25Q3电商GMV同比增长15.2%至3850亿元,AI技术全面赋能业务升级,OneRec等大模型持续广告、电商业务赋能;可灵AI商业化提速,在广告需求端应用空间广阔,成为全新增长曲线。此外,快手财务结构持续优化,资产负债率下降、现金流充裕,为技术投入与业务扩张提供坚实保障,短期业绩落地明确,长期增长基本面稳固。综合考虑公司于25年积极回购22.8亿港元,且特别派息20亿港元,给予公司25年18倍PE估值,目标价至82.4港币,维持“买入”评级。

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