莲华资产管理有限公司管理合伙人洪灏近日表示，美股肯定是先涨后跌了，它先涨的原因是因为流动性周期没有结束。洪灏表示，明年是美联储主席换届的一年，现在美国的短端的资金市场非常紧张，导致短端的利率高于美联储的基准利率，所以导致美联储下周不得不降息，没有任何的选择，也没有任何的悬念。他提到，美联储目前放弃了缩表的计划，因为它已经缩到6万亿美元左右了，但是缩到6万亿美元左右马上出现一个问题，就是回购市场完全干涸掉。“所以，我们会很快再次看到美联储即将重新扩表，而且这个扩表很有可能达到新的高度。这个时候产生的结果就是风险资产价格上升，所以这个时候市场要去做空，性价比是不高的，所以这也是我们相信风险资产向上再向下的一个原因。”他说。
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