金吾财讯 | 中金公司发研报指,2026年将是航空供需真正反转之年,行业逐渐进入供不应求的局面。步步为营——中国民航业经历多年供给低增速,航空需求的增长逐渐消化过剩运力,2026年供需紧张使得行业客座率将再攀高峰(我们预计2026年客座率87%);峰回路转——行业票价或将温和抬升以应对供给不足,民航业真正进入向上周期。关注航空淡季投资机会。过往的航空投资关注旺季,但供给扰动可能导致2026年行业淡季供需更为紧张,淡季票价涨幅或更大,因此淡季上市公司业绩改善幅度可能也更大。
金吾财讯 | 中金公司发研报指,2026年将是航空供需真正反转之年,行业逐渐进入供不应求的局面。步步为营——中国民航业经历多年供给低增速,航空需求的增长逐渐消化过剩运力,2026年供需紧张使得行业客座率将再攀高峰(我们预计2026年客座率87%);峰回路转——行业票价或将温和抬升以应对供给不足,民航业真正进入向上周期。关注航空淡季投资机会。过往的航空投资关注旺季,但供给扰动可能导致2026年行业淡季供需更为紧张,淡季票价涨幅或更大,因此淡季上市公司业绩改善幅度可能也更大。
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