据 PolyBeats 监测，截至 1 月 4 日，Polymarket 上关于 1 月 5 日原油期货（CL）价格涨跌的预测显示，押注价格上涨的概率一度触及 80%。市场资金流向主要受周末“委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗被捕事件”及此前“EIA 原油库存数据下降”影响，交易者普遍预期周一油价将录得涨幅。该预测合约的结算规则规定，仅对比 1 月 5 日 CME 官方结算价与 1 月 2 日结算价。盘中出现的日内交易价格、最高价或最低价均不纳入判定范围，且若涉及合约换月，将强制使用相同月份合约进行比价。这意味着判定结果完全取决于收盘时刻的价格水平，而非开盘或盘中的波动。这一分布表明市场认为供应端收紧的逻辑足以支撑全天行情。目前市场押注的方向显示，即便考虑到地缘政治事件可能引发盘中获利回吐，市场仍倾向于认为最终结算价会维持在周五收盘价上方，判定周一收盘跌破前一交易日基准线的概率较低。
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