Tiger Brokers

铝业股普涨 南山铝业国际(02610)涨12.73% 机构指铝价有望持续创出新高 吨铝利润有望进一步走阔

金吾财讯
Jan 19

金吾财讯 | 铝业股普涨，截至发稿，南山铝业国际(02610)涨12.73%，荣阳实业(02078)涨12.23%，创新实业(02788)涨2.50%，中国宏桥(01378)涨0.85%。中金公司发研报指，供给端弹性下降且脆弱性上升。一是国内产能触顶，二是欧美受制于电力紧张难以恢复且脆弱性提升，三是印尼受制于电力供应产能难以快速释放，我们预计2025-2030年全球供应增速将系统性下滑,供应CAGR为1.4%。需求侧受益于财政货币双宽松且新兴需求方兴未艾。我们认为，一是传统需求有望在宽松下获得提振，二是储能、IDC叠加新三样正在成为铝需求的新引擎，三是海外新兴经济体支撑铝需求进入新周期，我们预计2025-2030年需求CAGR为2.3%。成本端，我们认为，一是氧化铝受反内卷和几内亚政策风险有望驱动价格否极泰来，二是能源绿色转型有望降低电解铝绿电成本，三是煤炭需求拖累价格维持低位。该机构认为，电解铝供需缺口持续扩大，叠加全球积极的财政和货币政策共振，铝价有望持续创出新高；考虑成本侧有望维持低位，吨铝利润有望随着铝价上行进一步走阔。按照当前价格，电解铝公司2026年平均估值中枢仍压在10倍附近，该机构认为在涨价过程中具备较大向上重估空间，板块有望迎来戴维斯双击。

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