金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，2026年1月美国新增非农就业13万，高于彭博一致预期的6.5万，11-12月累计下修1.7万。1月美国新增非农整体超预期，特别是私人部门新增就业达到17.2万，为2025年以来的最高水平；但从行业看，就业集中在医疗、零售、建筑等少数行业，持续性仍有待观察。1月非农报告公布了对企业调查的年度基准修订，但对家庭调查的例行修订被推迟到2月非农报告。往前看，1月非农数据持续性有待观察，但整体佐证了就业市场逐步改善的判断；我们维持联储在6月前暂停降息，待新联储主席就任后降息1-2次的判断。1月新增非农绝对水平达到13万的较高水平，但由于集中在医疗等少数行业，持续性有待观察。考虑1月以来经济增长动能数据、首申数据整体改善，我们认为就业市场的下行风险明显下降。往前看，由于通胀整体较为温和，就业数据持续性存疑，我们预计联储在6月会议前仍将暂缓降息，强调观察后续数据再做决策，待Warsh接任联储主席后再降息1-2次。
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