【券商聚焦】华泰证券:淡季价格稳定,看好电商快递盈利持续修复

金吾财讯
Apr 24

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,春节后,线上消费动能偏弱,商品零售额、网上商品零售额分别同比+1.5%、+2.5%,较1-2月均放缓。快递层面,3月件量增速同比放缓,但在产粮区挺价、非产粮区接力涨价背景下,3月传统淡季价格较为稳定、仍维持同比正增长。该机构指,3月,行业件量同比增长3.5%(1-2月:同比+7.1%),节后消费动能整体较弱,件量增速放缓。但3月件均价同比增长1.2%(1-2月:同比+0.8%)、环比1-2月季节性下降0.26元,淡季价格维持同比正增长,核心产粮区实现淡季挺价。一季度,快递行业件量同比增长5.8%(4Q25:+5.0%),件均价同比增长1.0%(4Q25:-4.4%)、环比上涨0.15元。4月截至19日,全国快递揽收/派送量累计估算同比+4.1%/+3.3%。该机构预计4月件量同比增速依然较弱,但考虑到4月起全国多地加收燃油附加费、上调快递价格,4月件均价有望延续同比正增长。4月,全国多地区电商快递宣布加收燃油附加费,一方面,电商快递有望顺价传导高油价带来的成本压力,另一方面,涨价超出此前“电商快递同质化竞争,无法顺价传导高成本”的预期。年初以来,“产粮区”延长封盘、非产粮区接力涨价,叠加社保与“快递进村”等持续推进,该机构认为应重视监管维持反内卷成果、推动行业高质量发展的决心,该机构看好电商快递板块全年盈利持续修复。此外,该机构继续推荐受益海外电商高增的极兔速递,建议左侧布局件量结构调优的综合物流龙头。

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