锂矿概念股走强 智利矿业化工(SQM)涨5.50% 机构指锂电产业链基本面正出现积极催化剂

金吾财讯
Jun 11

金吾财讯 | 锂矿概念股盘中走强,截至发稿,Sigma Lithium (SGML) 涨 6.00%,智利矿业化工 (SQM) 涨 5.50%,美国雅保 (ALB) 涨 5.23%,Lithium Argentina AG (LAR) 涨 3.70%。消息面上,花旗集团大宗商品分析师什雷亚斯·马达布希在研报中指出,尽管当前市场情绪仍较为谨慎,但锂电产业链基本面正出现积极催化剂,短期内的补库周期将为价格提供坚实支撑:1)传统旺季补库效应: 随着行业逐步迈入传统的8月至9月需求旺季,下游电池厂商与材料企业的备货需求将显著放大。2)抢口岸“抢退税”潮刺激: 关键政策时间节点的临近正激发出强烈的提前消费。由于中国预计将在2027年1月将电池芯出口退税(补贴)降至0%,海外及中国本土车企为了锁定政策红利,预计将在2026年下半年掀起一轮猛烈的电池芯“提前储备潮”,直接拉动上游锂盐消耗。3)供需结构维持紧平衡: 尽管澳大利亚和中国的传统矿山存在复产预期,且津巴布韦等非洲新兴产区的锂产量有所增长,但花旗预计2026年全球锂矿的实际有效供应增速仍将滞后于需求释放,整体市场将保持偏紧状态。“具体而言,在传统的8-9月旺季到来之前进行的库存补充,以及政策调整前电池芯出口的进一步提前,都将成为助力锂价回升的核心驱动力。”

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