煤炭股整体受压 兖矿能源(01171)跌4.58% 机构预计6月国内原煤产量同比难有增量

金吾财讯
Jun 09

金吾财讯 | 煤炭股整体受压,弘海高新资源(00065)跌5.19%,兖矿能源(01171)跌4.58%,金马能源(06885)跌4.00%,中煤能源(01898)跌2.66%,MONGOL MINING(00975)跌2.35%,首钢资源(00639)跌2.16%,兖煤澳大利亚(03668)跌1.36%。信达证券发布煤炭行业周报,本周煤炭市场呈现先强后弱态势,价格快速上涨后进入短暂休整,展望后市该机构对煤价走势仍维持乐观判断。供给端来看,主产区重大安全事故后续影响仍持续,该机构预计6月国内原煤产量同比难有增量;海外方面,印尼出口新政正式落地,国有专营体制下审批流程趋严、即期货源装船受阻,且远期定价机制尚不明朗,预计进口补充作用将进一步弱化。需求端来看,迎峰度夏旺季正式开启,且今夏中等强度厄尔尼诺事件概率增大,华东、华南地区极端高温或导致全社会用电负荷再创新高,电厂补库节奏有望随日耗攀升而加快。综合来看,煤炭市场供需格局呈现趋紧态势,价格向上弹性空间充足,该机构预计短期休整后煤价有望重拾升势。需要特别强调的是,此次山西沁源矿难对国内煤炭市场真正的核心影响,绝非市场短期的价格脉冲,而更在于国内煤炭有效产能释放将长期受限,进一步锁死了煤炭产能特别是井工煤矿的供给弹性,进而夯实了中长期煤价处于中高位运行的确定性和持续性,优质煤企的长期投资价值也变得更加稳固。

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