金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，7月煤价环比持平，预计8月维持震荡。7月动力煤市场在旺季预期与高库存的博弈中收尾，港口现货价格先抑后扬。截至7月31日，秦皇岛港5500大卡动力煤价格825元/吨，环比上月持平，同比上涨165元/吨。展望8月，供应端，主产区安全监管严格，煤矿产能释放空间收窄，坑口煤价维持坚挺运行，北方港口调入量难有明显提升，供给端弹性不足，将对煤价形成稳固的底部支撑；需求端，8月上中旬国内处于三伏高温周期，江南、华南等地高温高湿天气延续，沿海地区用电负荷维持高位，沿海电厂日耗将保持在旺季高位区间，火电刚需对市场形成明确托底；库存端，高库存是制约8月煤价上行空间的核心因素，截至7月27日北方港口库存、沿海港口库存分别为3955万吨、6704万吨，同比均增长18%，处于近年同期偏高水平。尽管旺季日耗走高已带动库存高位回落，但高库存基数仍影响价格向上动能。
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