Huang Lichen: Gold's Short-Term Rebound Persists as US CPI Data Takes Center Stage

Market Watcher
07-15

On July 15, market analysis highlighted how U.S. President Trump's aggressive tariff policies—targeting the EU, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and other regions—reignited global trade anxieties, fueling safe-haven demand for gold and driving price appreciation. Consequently, trading recommendations emphasized support levels at $3359 and $3340, with resistance eyed at $3400.

Subsequent price movements unfolded dynamically: during the Asian session, gold surged to $3374 but faced immediate rejection, retreating to stabilize at $3353. European trading saw renewed attempts to breach $3374, yet resistance held firm through two separate tests. As the U.S. session commenced, gold oscillated downward, bottoming at $3340 before a tepid rebound faltered at $3351. Tuesday's opening brought a dip to $3341, but after decisively overcoming short-term resistance at $3351, prices accelerated to $3365—where they currently consolidate near $3359. Overall, the upward thrust proved weaker than forecasted, though gold's resilience near the $3340 support level underscored a persistent rebound trend.

Wolfinance Star Analyst Huang Lichen noted gold's recent broad-range volatility. Initially, robust U.S. non-farm payrolls data extinguished expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, propelling the dollar from multi-year lows and pressuring gold. However, Trump's tariff announcements—including a 50% levy on copper imports effective August 1, alongside duties on Japan, South Korea, and the EU—rekindled global trade war fears, amplifying gold's safe-haven appeal and supporting prices. Market focus now pivots to upcoming U.S. CPI data; tariff-driven inflation could deliver June's largest monthly surge, potentially compelling the Fed to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts. Such a scenario might bolster the dollar and weigh on gold, yet elevated inflation risks could simultaneously heighten risk aversion, offering counterbalancing support for the precious metal.

Technical analysis reveals a short-term rebound bias on the daily chart. Critical support rests at $3340—Monday's low, aligned with the 4-hour Bollinger Band midline and daily/weekly MA5 levels—where a breakdown might amplify downside risks. Resistance looms at $3365 (Tuesday's repeated cap) and $3374 (Monday's barrier), with a breakout eyeing $3400. Bullish signals emerge: golden crosses in the 5-day MA and MACD indicators, alongside upward-trending KDJ and RSI readings, suggest continued recovery momentum.

Trading Strategy: Trump's tariff escalations sustain gold's rebound via safe-haven inflows. Adopt a range-bound approach, with support at $3340 and resistance at $3365. A decisive move above $3365 could unlock targets at $3374 and $3400.

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