A week ago, OneWater Marine Inc. (NASDAQ:ONEW) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenues were better than expected, with US$376m in revenue some 11% ahead of forecasts. The company still lost US$0.81 per share, although the losses were marginally smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for OneWater Marine

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering OneWater Marine are now predicting revenues of US$1.82b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with OneWater Marine forecast to report a statutory profit of US$1.07 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.81b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.26 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The average price target fell 7.3% to US$22.80, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic OneWater Marine analyst has a price target of US$25.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$19.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the OneWater Marine's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that OneWater Marine's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than OneWater Marine.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of OneWater Marine's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple OneWater Marine analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that OneWater Marine is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.