MW Joey Chestnut is favored to win Nathan's hot-dog eating contest - but the smart money is betting another way

By Charles Passy

Sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel are taking wagers on the famous Fourth of July eating contest - and interest is especially strong after Chestnut was banned last year

Forget the Super Bowl or the NCAA Final Four. Could the sporting event creating the most buzz among bettors be the Fourth of July Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Perhaps that's an overstatement, but most of the major betting platforms - including DraftKings $(DKNG)$, FanDuel $(FLUT)$, BetMGM $(MGM)$ and Caesars Sportsbook $(CZR)$ - offer wagering on the contest, and have done so for a few years.

And with Joey Chestnut, widely considered the greatest competitive eater of all time, rejoining the Brooklyn, N.Y., event in 2025 after a one-year hiatus due to a sponsorship issue, it's expected that interest among bettors will be particularly strong this year.

The competition is being televised live on ESPN2 $(DIS)$ Friday at noon Eastern time. A separate women's event, televised on ESPN3, starts at 10:45 a.m. Eastern.

Not that bettors will probably like the odds. Chestnut, the winner of 16 previous men's contests, is the runaway favorite, with most platforms having him at about -1800 (or 1-18) odds to be the victor. That means you'll have to bet $180 just to win $10.

But here's where things can get interesting. As with other sporting events, the betting platforms are offering a variety of what are called prop bets - wagers on particular aspects of the contest. And in many cases, those bets come with better odds.

That is, you can bet on how many hot dogs Chestnut will eat versus other competitors, including Patrick Bertoletti, last year's winner. You can also wager on whether this year's winner will set a new record; Chestnut holds the current high mark, set in 2021, when he devoured 76 hot dogs in the contest's 10-minute time frame.

And if you're convinced Chestnut will win, but don't like the possibility of an extremely low return, then you can effectively bet on who will come in second - it's positioned as a "winner without Joey Chestnut" bet. For example, a bet on Bertoletti on DraftKings in this regard has -110 odds - meaning an $11 bet will pay out $10.

"There are still ways to engage the market smartly," said Matt Mitchell, a betting analyst and senior director at the Action Network, a website devoted to sports-betting news and information.

It's really no different than what we see with the Super Bowl, where prop bets can even include which team will win the coin toss or what color of Gatorade will be showered on the winning coach.

Robert Boland, a sports-law professor at Seton Hall University, said it's about generating added wagering, which is something sports-betting platforms have become particularly adept at doing. Indeed, last year Americans bet $148 billion on sports, setting a new wagering record.

Boland also said it makes sense that hot-dog eating has become an addition to the sports-betting slate. If anything, he said it's an event that more people can relate to versus other sports.

"I'm not going to hit a home run in Yankee Stadium, but I can eat a hot dog," Boland noted.

Johnny Avello, director of race and sports operations at DraftKings, said wagering on the hot-dog eating contest generally grows year by year, even if it's not quite yet at the same level as other marquee sporting events. Still, he said, "our customers ask for it."

To be clear, not all U.S. jurisdictions permit sports betting - and even those that do may not allow wagering on the hot-dog eating contest, as is the case in New York state.

As for the folks at Major League Eating, the organization behind the Nathan's Famous event and countless other stuff-your-face contests, they also said it's no surprise hot-dog eating is a new favorite among sports bettors.

"Fans view the Nathan's Famous event with same esteem one would the Masters, the Super Bowl or the Kentucky Derby," said Richard Shea, a founder of Major League Eating.

Shea added that he likes the fact that betting platforms bring legitimacy to the process. "I, for one, am glad the wagering is regulated and not happening in a Brooklyn back alley," he said.

-Charles Passy

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July 03, 2025 16:31 ET (20:31 GMT)

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