纺织服装行业2025年度中期投资策略：弱于周期兴于结构

长江证券

2025/07/06

复盘：制造景气弱化，港股&制造减配2025 年初至今，国内服装零售增速整体稳健，节假日提振叠加“618”促销提前下5 月增速环提升。制造端，2024 年如期修复，2025Q1 景气度有所下降；品牌端，收入承压，负经营杠杆拖累业绩。市场层面，年初至今行业略跑赢大盘，其中品牌服饰板块涨幅较优。基金持仓配置方面，海外需求疲软叠加关税加征预期下制造减配显著，拖累纺服2025Q1 重仓比例环比下降。品牌：...

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景气度有所下降；品牌端，收入承压，负经营杠杆拖累业绩。市场层面，年初至今行业略跑赢大盘，其中品牌服饰板块涨幅较优。基金持仓配置方面，海外需求疲软叠加关税加征预期下制造减配显著，拖累纺服2025Q1 重仓比例环比下降。品牌：2025Q3 望迎弱β，寻“新”消费α2025Q3 有望去库，估值具备上行空间。纺织服装行业去库到累库的周期一般维持1-3 年时间，而近阶段累库周期已持续一年多时间。目前国内零售增速稳健，且关税落地、提振内需政策及板块情绪方面均有利好，预计今年Q3 将进入去库周期；且目前品牌服装各子板块估值处于偏底部支撑位置，估值具备上行空间。服装：质价比、健康化，线下起势。国内重点服装公司近年来通过主业改革或者布局新业务，迎合服装消费质价比趋势和户外景气赛道。且从长期趋势来看，在传统电商降速、兴趣电商难以匹配多数上市公司SKC 销售模式下，线下实体红利开始显现，仍将品牌坚守且愈发重视的路径。个护：品质悦己、健康生活，线上红利。在消费者习惯转变、国货消费偏好提升、女性消费主体意识增强多重推动下，个护内资品牌依托于线上，凭借精准消费者教育、产品升级及内容营销，正在进行细分品类渗透与升级。制造：短期难现β，寻“底”&弹性短期，当前下游行业在小幅补库后，因行业和多数品牌终端零售表现偏弱，逐步过渡至被动累库阶段；此外美国关税政策反复，对国内纺企订单、利润乃至股价形成压制，因此从需求和库存两维度，制造短期内难现β。长期，加关之下品牌预计趋向于在不同制造商之间进行产能调配，预计弱盈利和竞争力的尾部厂商份额趋降，而优质制造商有望享受优盈利、强管理、全球化产能等竞争优势带来的市场份额提升。此外，产能扩张速度V.S 营收速度、产能利用率可从一定程度上衡量反映纺织制造公司的竞争力，初步锚定龙头弹性。策略：传统拐点降至，弹性“新”中求品牌服饰：情绪&政策利好下看好行业弱β 与新消费α。在弱β判断下，重点推荐具有新消费α逻辑的标的：京东奥莱业务增量明显的海澜之家、产品差异化品牌势能提升的稳健医疗、零售改革下经营周期向上的森马服饰，以及数字化能力提升叠加渠道补库弹性的罗莱生活。港股则重点优选低估值强确定标的：强运营兑现龙头&应享估值溢价的安踏体育，确定性修复&高股息的滔搏，以及强运营能力&高股息的波司登。此外，估值底部支撑的细分行业龙头也有望受益修复，如中高端男装报喜鸟、比音勒芬，以及家纺品牌等。纺织制造：短期难现β，长期优质龙头拐点将至。需求放缓叠加关税加征对纺织制造的压制，有望在下半年迎来拐点，长期看好格局向好的优质制造龙头。重点推荐优质白马龙头：伟星股份、申洲国际、华利集团，关注出美风险敞口较小的鲁泰A，关税落地后业绩弹性较高的的浙江自然、健盛集团、开润股份等；此外建议关注布局新材料的标的以及低PB 公司的修复机会。风险提示1、终端零售环境变化；2、国内外宏观经济变化；3、库存风险；4、原材料及汇率大幅波动","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}

纺织服装行业2025年度中期投资策略：弱于周期 兴于结构

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纺织服装行业2025年度中期投资策略：弱于周期兴于结构