GF Securities has released a research report noting that in the first three quarters of 2026, the CR5 share of net profit attributable to parent companies among brokerages reached 50%, up 4 percentage points from the end of 2025. In the first three quarters of 2026, the combined investment business revenue of 42 listed brokerages totaled 195.5 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year. Under conditions of low valuation and light positioning, the sector offers both defensive qualities and upside potential. Corporate earnings recovery supports a mild capital market revival, internationalization opens a second growth curve, and industry regulatory policies continue to optimize. In Q3, market volatility intensified and brokerage profit divergence widened, with tech innovation attributes enhancing earnings elasticity. The main views of GF Securities Co., Ltd. (000776) are as follows:
Capital-consuming businesses in Q3 intensified performance divergence, and industry concentration rose further.
In the first three quarters of 2026, the 42 listed brokerages together achieved operating revenue of 497.9 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to parent companies of 209.2 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, combined operating revenue was 134.1 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year and down 37% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit attributable to parent companies was 54.1 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and down 43% quarter-on-quarter. By business line, in the first three quarters of 2026, brokerage, investment banking, asset management, net interest, and net investment income rose 28%, 26%, 26%, 38%, and 6% year-on-year, respectively. In the first three quarters of 2026, the industry's annualized ROE was 8.3%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and average operating leverage was 3.5X, up 0.05X year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 2026, the CR5 share of net profit attributable to parent companies among brokerages reached 50%, up 4 percentage points from the end of 2025.
Proprietary trading remains the key determinant of performance, and equity OCI allocations continue to increase.
In the first three quarters of 2026, the combined investment business revenue of 42 listed brokerages totaled 195.5 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year. (1) In Q3 2026, the industry's average investment leverage was 2.1X, flat year-on-year, and the industry's average annualized investment return was 2%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year; the estimated comprehensive investment return rate rose quarter-on-quarter to 2.2%, with brokerages advantaged in primary-market investment projects showing stronger earnings elasticity. (2) Structurally, equity OCI allocations continued to increase. At the end of Q3 2026, other equity instruments totaled 831.8 billion yuan, up 18% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 10.5% of the scale of financial investments, up 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. In Q3 2026, proprietary equity assets and their derivatives as a share of net assets averaged 26%, down 0.1 percentage points from the beginning of the year, while non-equity assets averaged 229%, up 2 percentage points from the beginning of the year.
Market trading remained active, and buy-side advisory services deepened their transformation.
(1) In the first three quarters of 2026, the average daily stock turnover in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets rose 57% year-on-year, and the brokerage business revenue of the 42 brokerages was 142.9 billion yuan, up 28% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 2026, newly issued equity fund shares rose 24% year-on-year, private fund filings in the first eight months rose 61% year-on-year, and the asset management revenue of the 42 brokerages was 41.8 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year. (2) Leveraged fund activity pulled back. At the end of Q3 2026, margin financing and securities lending balances stood at 2.6 trillion yuan, up 0.6% from the end of 2025, and the net interest income of the 42 brokerages was 46.7 billion yuan, up 38% year-on-year. At the end of Q3 2026, the combined credit asset scale of brokerages was 2.5 trillion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, and in the first three quarters of 2026, the average liability cost of brokerages was 2.15%, down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year.
Investment banking and capitalization warmed along with the market, with standout tech innovation elasticity and divergence.
In the first three quarters of 2026, the investment banking revenue of the 42 listed brokerages was 31.7 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year. The leadership pattern in equity financing was basically stable, with the CR5 of equity financing scale at 82% in the first three quarters of 2026, led by CITIC, CICC, and Guotai Haitong. Investment banking capitalization focused on hard technology, leveraging patient capital and industrial pricing capabilities, while the fundraising side shifted toward long-term capital such as national and provincial guidance funds and accelerated concentration among top managers; alternative subsidiaries and private equity subsidiaries generally saw profit recovery, with differences in primary-market capital investment leading to significant profit divergence. Risk warnings include worse-than-expected economic downturn, strengthened industry regulatory policies, and company performance falling short of expectations.