At the Shenwan Hongyuan 2027 Capital Markets Investment Conference held in Shanghai on November 10, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.,Ltd. (SWHY) Chief Economist Zhao Wei delivered a speech titled "Sunlit Flowers and Trees Easily Meet Spring: 2027 Macroeconomic Outlook."

As the year-end and beginning-of-year period brings volatile market sentiment, a neglected other side of the coin is that under multiple shocks, traditional industries are accelerating their clearing process, and the "positive signals" bred by this clearing have begun to accumulate. Under multiple influences in 2026, some traditional industries have seen accelerated clearing, especially midstream and downstream sectors; the support that clearing provides to prices and profits has already emerged, and asset turnover ratios are showing signs of bottoming and improving. Moreover, in the attribution of consumption, the market has generally overlooked the impact of social groups — as rigid costs decline and the "crowding-out effect" of AI investment weakens, the release of consumption space by social groups in 2027 is worth anticipating.

For 2027, it is recommended to focus on three main supply-side themes and changes in the "connotation" of demand-expansion policies. On the supply side: the narrowing gap between PPI and CPI will help accelerate profit recovery in industries undergoing clearing; second, the real estate policy cycle since "929" may have entered a new phase, with attention to the possibility of marginal improvement in real estate investment and financing conditions; third, technological breakthroughs are gradually becoming a "spark that starts a prairie fire," representing era-defining opportunities under the resonance of industrial upgrading and policy support. On the demand side: attention should be paid to the shift in the "connotation" of demand-expansion policies, with greater integration of "physical" and "human" dimensions; monetary, financial, and real estate policies may also further open up space.