According to a report released by the China Index Academy, in October 2026, the existing home market in key cities continued to show strong activity, with transaction volumes maintaining year-on-year growth, but the price adjustment trend persisted. The average price of existing homes across 100 cities stood at 12,376 yuan per square meter, down 0.61% month-on-month, with the decline widening by 0.01 percentage points from the previous month, and down 6.72% year-on-year.
Looking ahead to the end of the year, the mortgage interest subsidy policy is expected to help reduce home purchase costs for residents. Combined with year-end promotional launches by developers and the entry of high-quality projects in core cities, this is expected to provide some support for new home transactions, though the overall market is likely to continue bottoming out. Existing home transactions are expected to maintain a certain level of activity, but given that current market expectations remain weak, existing home prices are projected to continue fluctuating and adjusting.
According to survey data from the China Real Estate Index System's 100-city price index covering new and existing residential sales markets in 100 cities and rental markets in 50 cities: In October 2026, the existing home market in key cities continued its momentum, with transaction volumes maintaining year-on-year growth, but the price adjustment trend persisted. The average price of existing homes across 100 cities was 12,376 yuan per square meter, down 0.61% month-on-month, with the decline widening by 0.01 percentage points from the previous month, and down 6.72% year-on-year.
In the new home segment, high-quality projects in key cities such as Shanghai and Beijing accelerated their market entry in October, driving a continued structural uptrend in new home prices across 100 cities. The average price of new residential properties across 100 cities was 17,316 yuan per square meter, up 0.18% month-on-month and up 2.02% year-on-year. In the rental housing segment, the average rent across 50 cities was 33.87 yuan per square meter per month, down 0.28% month-on-month and down 2.02% year-on-year.
Looking ahead to the end of the year, the mortgage interest subsidy policy is expected to help lower home purchase costs for residents. Combined with year-end promotional launches by developers and the entry of high-quality projects in core cities, this is expected to provide some support for new home transactions, though the overall market is likely to continue bottoming out. Existing home transactions are expected to maintain a certain level of activity, but given that current market expectations remain weak, existing home prices are projected to continue fluctuating and adjusting. Going forward, attention should focus on the sustainability of transaction recovery in core cities and year-end land market performance.
Meanwhile, the impact of the August 28 new policy on developers' development fund turnover and investment decisions will gradually materialize as new projects are developed. Land market performance at year-end and in 2027 is worth watching. Transitional arrangements for projects already in the pipeline will help buffer short-term changes in new home supply, while the supply pace of new projects still needs to be further observed in light of local policy implementation and corporate development arrangements.
By City Tier
In the existing home segment, first-tier city existing home prices fell 0.53% month-on-month, with the decline widening by 0.11 percentage points from the previous month; second-tier cities fell 0.72% month-on-month, with the decline widening by 0.02 percentage points; third- and fourth-tier cities fell 0.54% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.04 percentage points. Year-on-year, existing home prices in first-tier, second-tier, and third- and fourth-tier cities fell 6.00%, 7.21%, and 6.53% respectively in October. In terms of the number of cities with price changes, 1 city saw a month-on-month increase, 98 cities saw a decline, and 1 city remained flat.
In the new home segment, first-tier city new home prices rose 0.41% month-on-month and 5.08% year-on-year in October, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rising 0.30%, 0.53%, 0.17%, and 0.01% respectively month-on-month. The rise in new home prices continued to be primarily driven by the entry of high-priced projects. Second-tier cities rose 0.13% month-on-month and 1.68% year-on-year. Representative third- and fourth-tier cities fell 0.10% month-on-month and 2.01% year-on-year. In terms of the number of cities with price changes, 32 cities saw a month-on-month increase, 61 cities saw a decline, and 7 cities remained flat.
In the rental housing segment, the average rent for ordinary residential properties in first-tier cities fell 0.18% month-on-month in October, with the decline widening by 0.15 percentage points from September, and down 0.26% year-on-year. Among them, rents in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to rise month-on-month, with increases of 0.25% and 0.11% respectively, while rent declines in Beijing and Guangzhou widened. The average rent decline in second-tier cities widened by 0.13 percentage points to 0.38% month-on-month, and fell 3.13% year-on-year. Rent declines in representative third- and fourth-tier cities narrowed by 0.01 percentage points to 0.14% month-on-month, and fell 1.65% year-on-year. In terms of the number of cities with price changes, 5 cities saw a month-on-month increase and 45 cities saw a decline.
NDRC Press Conference Proposes Timely Introduction of Pragmatic and Effective Incremental Policies
On the policy front, on October 20, the National Development and Reform Commission stated at a press conference that it would "timely introduce pragmatic and effective incremental policies. We will ensure the implementation of recently introduced incremental policies, including lowering the interest rate on pledged supplementary lending, increasing re-lending quotas, mortgage interest subsidies for residents, and financial support for the development of the service industry, and push for these to take effect as soon as possible. At the same time, we will carry out economic monitoring and early warning, and introduce new incremental policies as needed in a timely manner to ensure that economic performance remains within a reasonable range."
At the local level, the reform of the commercial housing sales system has entered a period of intensive implementation of detailed rules. Cities including Wuhan, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shiyan, Wenzhou, Suzhou, Hefei, Chengdu, and Xi'an have successively issued implementation opinions. With August 28 as an important node, newly announced land parcels will prioritize completed housing sales, and pre-sold projects must complete the main structure topping-out; transitional periods are set up by category for various projects already in the pipeline, and those meeting conditions may proceed under the original pre-sale conditions, with strengthened supervision of pre-sale funds. At the same time, all localities have optimized land transfer payment arrangements, mostly requiring a down payment of no less than 50% within 30 days, with the balance to be paid in full within a maximum of two years without interest. Wuhan and Xi'an require a payment ratio of no less than 50% within six months. Multiple cities have explicitly supported phased development, phased construction permits, and phased acceptance inspections. Regarding mortgage disbursement, all localities require that for projects obtaining pre-sale permits from August 28 onward, individual housing mortgage loans may only be issued after completion acceptance filing.
In terms of housing provident fund policy, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Dongguan, and other places have added withdrawals for renovation and property management fees. Hangzhou has raised the loan amount increase ratio for multi-child families from 50% to 60%, with the maximum loan amount raised to 3.24 million yuan. In terms of urban renewal, Shanghai issued the "Three-Year Action Plan for Urban Renewal (2026-2028)," specifying 700,000 square meters of old housing comprehensive renovation and approximately 24 million square meters of old residential community renovation. In addition, in October, Anhui, Hubei, and other provinces and cities issued approximately 23 billion yuan in special bonds to repurchase and acquire idle existing land.
Typical City Sample Projects
In October, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources issued the "Opinions on Improving the Quality of Residential Public Spaces in the City (Trial)," focusing on enhancing the quality of community public spaces. The core content is the systematic promotion of elevated slab design, creating a safer, more comfortable, and more vibrant living environment through composite utilization of three-dimensional space. Based on the theoretical system and framework of the China Real Estate Index System, the China Index Academy selected typical sample projects with strong visibility and broad influence in their respective cities from the sample projects of the 100-city new residential price index. Using "representativeness" as the basic principle, it conducted research on sample projects from aspects such as sales performance and product innovation, ultimately producing the "2026 January-October Typical City Sample Projects," affirming the exemplary status of these projects while also providing benchmarks for the market to learn from and reference.