GTHT has released a research report stating that the 2027 insurance sales season performance is expected to beat expectations, and investors should pay attention to the recovery opportunities for listed insurers trading at extremely low valuations.
On the liability side, despite a high base, the phased decline in new life insurance premium growth does not change the strong long-term demand for insurance savings products, and improving product duration structures will help support value growth; investors should watch the 2027 insurance sales season performance.
On the asset side, profits are under阶段性 pressure amid equity market volatility, and insurance companies are expected to dynamically adjust their stock and bond allocation strategies based on the external market environment to promote stable earnings and dividends. Current share prices reflect extremely pessimistic investment-side expectations, and with interest rates stabilizing and recovering, there is room for valuation repair among listed insurers. The industry rating remains "Overweight."
Key takeaways from GTHT
Recently, listed insurers have successively disclosed their 2027 insurance sales season plans. The 2027 sales season products are mainly participating whole life insurance with increasing sum assured and participating annuities. Based on calculations, the 30-year IRR including dividends is approximately 2.18% to 2.68%.
Each company has enriched its product system around pension payouts, wealth accumulation, and intergenerational wealth transfer, meeting multi-layered family protection and savings needs through mechanisms such as dual insureds, flexible withdrawals, terminal dividends, and universal account combinations, combined with medical and elderly care services. The benefit performance and design mechanisms of each company's flagship sales season products differ.
(1) China Life: Focused on pension annuities with clear long-term retirement attributes. Xintai Jinsheng supports annual payouts, monthly payouts, and special survival benefits. Based on calculations, the 10-year/30-year IRR including dividends is 1.07%/2.18%, with breakeven in the 7th year. China Life Jiayuan provides supporting retirement services.
(2) Ping An: Both increasing whole life and annuities offered, advancing intergenerational wealth transfer and flexible pension payouts. Based on calculations, Yuxiang Xiyue whole life insurance has a 10-year/30-year IRR including dividends of 1.55%/2.52%, with breakeven in the 6th year; the same series pension annuity has a 30-year IRR of 2.33%, with clear long-term retirement attributes. The former supports a second insured, while the latter allows payouts starting as early as 21 days after meeting conditions.
(3) China Pacific Insurance: Shengshi Hongyun S (Hengying Edition) participating increasing whole life insurance features dual co-insurance and qualifying premium waivers. Based on calculations, for a 10-year payment plan, the first 10 years emphasize protection, with a 30-year IRR including dividends of 2.27%, supported by CPIC Jiayuan retirement services.
(4) New China Life: Both annuities and increasing whole life insurance cover medium-term withdrawals and long-term accumulation. Based on calculations, Hongda Rensheng Hengtai Edition has a 10-year/30-year IRR including dividends of 2.25%/2.56%, with outstanding 10-year returns; Shengshi Rongyao Jinzun Edition combined with a universal account has a 10-year/30-year IRR including dividends of 2.04%/2.68%, with breakeven in the 4th year, supported by New China An and New China Yue services.
(5) AIA: Coordinated wealth and protection systems. On the wealth side, Chuanshi Yingjia Zhencang Edition has a 10-year/30-year IRR including dividends of 1.15%/2.55%, with breakeven in the 10th year, and supports dual insureds; for high-net-worth clients, the Zhixiang Zunyu series is offered, featuring increasing and terminal dividends and a dedicated participating account. On the protection side, the Chuanshi Yingruyi Shunxin/Xingxiang Zhencang critical illness insurance adds medical expense compensation, while Yingxiangban focuses on participating whole life insurance plus a lifelong care rider.
(6) Taikang: Outstanding customer returns, connected to physical medical and elderly care resources. Changqi Xinxiang Shijia 2027 Zunxiang Edition participating increasing whole life insurance is the flagship product, with a 10-year/30-year IRR including dividends of approximately 2.02%/2.65%, with breakeven in the 5th year, connecting to physical medical and elderly care resources through Xingfu Youyue, Taikang Home, and medical networks.
Sales season performance is expected to beat expectations, and investors should pay attention to recovery opportunities for listed insurers at extremely low valuations. On the liability side, despite a high base, the phased decline in new life insurance premium growth does not change the strong long-term demand for insurance savings products, and improving product duration structures will help support value growth; investors should watch the 2027 insurance sales season performance. On the asset side, profits are under phased pressure amid equity market volatility, and insurance companies are expected to dynamically adjust their stock and bond allocation strategies based on the external market environment to promote stable earnings and dividends. Current share prices reflect extremely pessimistic investment-side expectations, and with interest rates stabilizing and recovering, there is room for valuation repair among listed insurers. The industry rating remains "Overweight."
Risk warnings: declining long-end interest rates; capital market volatility; liability cost control falling short of expectations.