China's lithium battery exports are still growing.

On October 14, the General Administration of Customs announced that in the first three quarters, China's lithium battery exports grew 36.4% year-on-year. Earlier market-specific data had already shown shifts: according to customs data compiled by the Power Battery Application Branch, in the first eight months, lithium battery export value to the United States fell 24%; measured by the same caliber of amount, export value to markets outside the United States grew about 53%. Other markets filled the gap left by the United States.

Several leading companies therefore show different growth profiles. CATL continues to expand its business in Europe and Asia, BYD's batteries are entering more overseas markets alongside its vehicles, while manufacturers such as EVE Energy and Hithium are competing for orders in the energy storage market. Beyond supplying goods, cooperation involving building plants together with customers and undertaking local services is increasing, and battery makers are leaving more investment overseas.

The share changes between CATL and its South Korean peers best illustrate the impact of diverging regional demand. According to SNE Research, in the first eight months of this year, CATL's installed share in the power battery market outside China rose from 29% to 33.7%. Its European business maintained growth, and installations in Asia increased rapidly. LG Energy Solution, SK On and Samsung SDI, meanwhile, were dragged down by falling North American demand, with their combined overseas share dropping from 37.9% to 26.8%. Overseas installations here include both batteries exported with complete vehicles and overseas production, which differs from the statistical scope of customs battery exports.

BYD's performance at home and abroad also showed a contrast. In the first eight months, its global power battery share fell from 17.1% to 15.1%, while its overseas share rose from 8.2% to 11%. Domestic vehicle sales came under pressure, but complete-vehicle business in Europe, Asia and South America continued to drive battery installation growth. BYD's own vehicles have become an important pillar for expanding its battery share overseas.

Companies such as Gotion High-tech and EVE Energy are also catching up. In the first eight months, Gotion's overseas power battery share doubled to 4%, while EVE's rose from 0.9% to 2.1%, and the shares of SVOLT and CALB also increased. Gotion's overseas installations have surpassed those of Samsung SDI, and CALB and EVE Energy entered the top ten.

Independent battery makers must win over more automakers and also adapt to different powertrain routes. Sunwoda Power has already supplied hybrid batteries to Renault and Nissan in volume, while CALB steadily supplies global models for Toyota and Mazda. Europe's pure electric vehicle share is rising, but ordinary hybrids still account for the largest proportion, and international automakers' battery procurement has not unfolded along a single product route.

Volkswagen's cooperation with Gotion has already reached the stage of joint funding. Volkswagen hopes to add lithium iron phosphate supply for mainstream-priced models and pointed out that Europe lacks related scale capacity. Under the announced arrangement, Gotion plans to invest about 1.1 billion euros to acquire a 49% stake in a Spanish joint venture plant, with the agreement still pending approval. For such cooperation, what Chinese battery makers need to provide includes not only products and manufacturing technology, but also funds to build local supply chains.

Energy storage has given another group of companies the opportunity to expand overseas business. Among the top five overseas energy storage cell shipments in the first half of this year published by InfoLink, after CATL came EVE Energy, BYD, Hithium and Penghui Energy. Booming overseas residential storage demand drove the rankings of EVE and Penghui; in the global small storage cell market, EVE, Penghui and REPT BATTERO together held more than 60% share. Hithium's advantage is more evident in large-scale energy storage projects, ranking second globally in large storage cell shipments.

Repeat purchases by power plant developers are bringing suppliers continuous business. BYD's customer Grenergy purchased energy storage systems again in March this year for a new project in Chile, and a batch of equipment has already shipped from China. CATL's customer ContourGlobal covered three countries—the United Kingdom, Greece and Chile—in a single purchase, and the cooperation also includes degradation management and recycling after end of life. Once suppliers establish cooperation with multinational developers, they can continue to pursue their projects in other markets.

Local services are also handed to suppliers along with contracts. Hithium's project in Australia with GPG, under Spain's energy group Naturgy, includes local delivery, commissioning and technical support. The Japanese Kanuma project disclosed by REPT BATTERO has already been connected to the grid, and the company also provides acceptance and operation and maintenance services. Sungrow's supply agreement in Europe promised 98% system availability and long-term maintenance. Battery makers and system suppliers both need to maintain corresponding service capabilities overseas.

Plant construction progress, however, varies. Sunwoda's first phase in Thailand has been put into production, and CATL's cell plant in Hungary has started trial production. The U.S. Amplify project in which EVE participates is still building its plant, but due to changed expectations for electric commercial vehicle demand, manufacturing capacity installation has been delayed and the production timetable remains uncertain. Even if a company's overseas installation share is rising, that does not necessarily mean every regional investment can proceed as originally planned.

Overseas markets are giving Chinese battery makers more share, and also requiring them to bear more capital investment and long-term service. Once customers and suppliers invest together, cooperation deepens, and capacity adjustments become more mutually constrained. The larger the overseas business, the more battery makers need to examine customers' expansion plans as their own investment decisions.