Key takeaways: Rivian has now been listed on the Nasdaq for five full years, and CEO RJ Scaringe said in an interview that bets on the R2 model and the autonomous driving business will make 2027 the automaker's inflection year. The R2 became Rivian's best-selling model in the third quarter; the company plans to first deploy point-to-point advanced driver assistance on a small scale, then roll it out broadly in 2027. The Amazon-backed company priced its IPO at $78, and its shares have fallen more than 80% since then, including a drop of nearly 30% this year alone. RJ Scaringe and his team at the opening ceremony of Rivian's production base in Normal, Illinois. Source: Rivian.

Five years ago, Rivian officially listed on the Nasdaq. Founder and CEO RJ Scaringe rang the Nasdaq opening bell at the Normal, Illinois factory at the time, while the company's sleek display vehicles were placed outside the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square. That was an era of full-blown euphoria for all-electric automakers, and that boom has since faded. Like the electric vehicle hype of that time, this Amazon-backed company has seen its shares fall more than 80% cumulatively since its November 10, 2021 listing at an IPO price of $78, with a decline of nearly 30% this year alone. A combination of internal and external factors has weighed on Rivian's stock, but it remains the most promising among the electric vehicle startups that went public in the early 2020s — many of its peers from that period have gone bankrupt. Rivian founder and CEO RJ Scaringe acknowledged that supply chain shortages, geopolitical conflicts, and slower-than-expected growth in electric vehicle demand meant many things did not go according to plan; but he believes next year will be an important catalyst for the company and its investors. "2027 is truly an inflection year for us," Scaringe told in an exclusive interview. "I am very much looking forward to fully showing the market the potential we firmly believe this company holds."

R2 SUV. Scaringe's optimism rests on the production ramp-up of the mid-size SUV R2. The model is positioned to bring the brand into the mainstream mass market, while the company continues to invest in next-generation vehicle software and autonomous driving technology. Scaringe said the R2, with a starting price of about $45,000, is the core vehicle carrying the company's new technologies. In the third quarter of 2026, Rivian's deliveries hit a new high of 19,248 units, up 46% year over year; the R2 has already become the company's best-selling model by volume, outselling the flagship R1 series as well as its commercial electric vans. "The R2 will define our company. The path to profitability and the path to substantial revenue growth all revolve around the R2 and subsequent derivative models." Exterior of Rivian's all-new all-electric R2 SUV.

Thanks to the R2's growing share of the sales mix and the dilution of fixed costs, in the most recent quarter Rivian improved its per-vehicle cost of goods sold in the automotive business by more than $12,000 quarter over quarter. The company is also building a new factory in Georgia. Scaringe said that to reach the production scale needed to achieve net profit, this factory is indispensable. Rivian's only current plant, in Normal, has an annual capacity of 215,000 vehicles, of which up to 155,000 can be R2s, while also producing R1 models and electric vans. The first phase of the Georgia plant is expected to be completed by the end of 2028, with planned annual capacity of up to 300,000 vehicles. Of course, expanding production means continued capital expenditure, and the company's profitability pressure rises accordingly. "We have already set our strategy: while pushing toward our profitability goal, we will continue to invest deeply in technology, especially autonomous driving."

Profitability vs. cash burn. Rivian's operating condition is improving, but many Wall Street analysts expect the company's capital investment needs to rise significantly in 2027. Rivian's third-quarter consolidated gross profit was $176 million; within that, the automotive business posted a gross loss of $80 million, while the software and services segment posted gross profit of $256 million, with a gross margin of 42%. Wall Street analysts generally acknowledge that initial demand for the R2 is strong and manufacturing costs continue to decline, but they worry whether these positives can offset the pressure from autonomous driving research and development spending, construction of the Georgia plant, and continued cash burn. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu wrote in an October 30 earnings research note: "The funding issue has long been at the core of debate among Rivian investors. Even if the logic is credible, a path that takes years to reach cash flow break-even becomes less attractive to investors." On its late-October earnings call, Rivian said that after accounting for its credit facility, cooperation funds from Volkswagen and Uber, and loan agreements related to the Georgia plant, total available liquidity in the future is about $13 billion. At the end of the third quarter, the company had $5.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments combined. The company may still need a new round of financing. Scaringe said future financing will be pursued at the right time, and previous financing included equity partnerships with Volkswagen and Uber. "Looking at the market environment, we want to keep the financial room to continue investing in technology. So we will act opportunistically on financing, but I want to make one thing clear: our core goal is to achieve profitability."

Autonomous driving. The company has already substantially upgraded its vehicles' software capabilities and hardware configuration to prepare for autonomous driving technology — which Scaringe calls physical artificial intelligence. The next step will be to launch a point-to-point autonomous driving feature: the vehicle can drive itself from start to finish, with the driver responsible for monitoring and handling unexpected anomalies. Currently, U.S. electric vehicle leader Tesla is the only automaker that has already deployed this feature. Scaringe said Rivian not only wants to catch up with Tesla but also to surpass it; Rivian uses a multi-sensor fusion approach that gives vehicles stronger "perception," with clear advantages especially in severe weather conditions. "This is not the finish line... you can think of it as the starting line, and only then will Rivian and Tesla have a truly comparable basis." The point-to-point driver assistance will be rolled out in stages over the coming weeks and months: first to internal employees, then to regular customers; the company plans to launch a Robotaxi autonomous taxi business in 2028. Scaringe believes this technology will become Rivian's core differentiating competitive advantage in the coming years. "I think autonomous driving will go from being listed among the top five considerations by only 10% of car buyers to becoming the first or second decision-making factor for the vast majority of buyers." On November 10, 2021, the day Rivian went public, an R1T electric pickup was parked outside the Nasdaq Marketsite in New York. Rivian will hold its second investor technology day on December 9, disclosing more AI and autonomous driving plans. TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli commented in a research note last week: "The technology day is likely to be a positive catalyst, and it may clarify how autonomous driving features will drive incremental vehicle demand and boost software revenue in 2027, building on the growth momentum of 2026." According to analyst expectations compiled by FactSet, Rivian currently has an "overweight" rating and a target price of $17.70, implying roughly 26% upside from Monday's closing price, though still a huge gap from its IPO price.