Orient Securities released a research report stating that GLP-1 drugs are in a phase of simultaneous demand expansion and product iteration, and there is still huge room for commercialization in the global market, with domestic volume growth and overseas market expansion expected to jointly drive corporate growth. 1) Domestic market: In the diabetes treatment field, companies with advantages in cost, stable supply, and hospital coverage are favored, as well as domestic novel drugs that have already entered medical insurance and have first-mover advantages; in the weight loss field, companies with both product differentiation and commercialization capabilities are favored; 2) U.S. market: innovative drug companies with differentiated clinical evidence, global development capabilities, and overseas commercialization cooperation foundations are favored, while attention should be paid to generic drug companies with outstanding cost and channel supply advantages; 3) Emerging markets: companies with faster registration progress, mature local channel cooperation, and the ability to balance affordable pricing with stable supply are favored.

Orient Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

China: Diabetes Treatment Depends on Access, Weight Loss Depends on Differentiation

In 2025, domestic GLP-1 drug sales reached 13.7 billion yuan, and in 26H1 reached 11.1 billion yuan, with out-of-hospital sales scale already exceeding in-hospital sales. Semaglutide and tirzepatide still hold leading positions, while mazdutide is rapidly growing in volume, reflecting the strong response of the out-of-hospital market to innovative products. Improved semaglutide drugs and generics are being filed intensively, and oral small molecules, multi-target, and ultra-long-acting products are also accelerating, with subsequent competition set to further differentiate. The bank believes that the in-hospital diabetes treatment market places more emphasis on medical insurance coverage, hospital access, and continuous supply, and companies with advantages in these areas are expected to continue expanding their share; the out-of-hospital weight loss market places more emphasis on efficacy, tolerability, dosing convenience, and price, and companies with both product differentiation and promotion capabilities have greater potential.

United States: Giants Dominate, Innovation Opens Up Incremental Growth

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate through brands, payment access, and supply systems, and competition has extended from injectable products to oral products. The scale of GLP-1 drug sales in the United States is still expanding, but the growth rate has slowed compared with earlier periods, and subsequent pipelines such as multi-target, ultra-long-acting, and AMYR will further enrich treatment options. The bank believes that the giants' existing commercialization foundations will help promote new products, while other companies need to establish clinical positioning through improvements in efficacy, tolerability, or dosing convenience. Among domestic pipelines, Hengrui Medicine's repretatide has made relatively fast progress and has been advanced by Kailera to overseas Phase III trials, and is expected to participate in competition in the U.S. market.

Emerging Markets: Broad Space, Domestic Formulations Accelerate Going Overseas

Emerging markets have a large number of T2D and obesity patients, and demand for GLP-1 drugs continues to grow, with differences in payment capacity and competitive landscape providing different commercialization opportunities. India's semaglutide patent has expired, and payment capacity is relatively low, so generic supply is increasing rapidly, and price and channel competition are deepening; Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals has reached a cooperation with Lupin for befovacestatide in the Indian market, which is expected to form a differentiated positioning. Brazil has already formed a relatively large market for mature molecules, and Livzon's semaglutide has been submitted for marketing, and is expected to capture demand through competitive pricing; Yinuo's efsubaglutide alfa has also submitted a marketing application, and is expected to seek differentiated market space by leveraging clinical application data accumulated domestically and ultra-long-acting dosing. Saudi Arabia's relatively high health expenditure provides considerable space for both new drugs and generics, and Hybio's semaglutide has been submitted for marketing for T2D, and is expected to be among the first to gain volume.

Risk Warning The risk of failure in innovative drug R&D; the risk of intensifying market competition; the risk of commercialization of innovative drugs, etc.