Zhitoong Finance App has learned that Orient Securities Company Limited (ASX: 600958) has released a research report stating that overall demand in the travel chain is lackluster, with significant divergence within the sector; the education sector shows outstanding demand resilience, the supply landscape continues to improve, and prosperity remains at a high level. Considering that current market style favors balanced allocation, it is recommended to focus on high-prosperity education tracks, while also positioning in high-quality undervalued leaders that possess operational structure optimization, incremental business support, and dividend attributes. The main viewpoints of Orient Securities Company Limited are as follows:

Fourth-quarter view: Focus on the strong education sector and the profit resilience of leaders in niche tracks.

Consumer travel tracking: Boosted by the misalignment of the Mid-Autumn Festival, September retail sales growth accelerated month-on-month compared to August. In September 2026, retail sales rose 1.1% year-on-year, a slowdown from August's 0.4% year-on-year increase, with service consumption relatively outperforming; data from the Civil Aviation Administration shows that August passenger volume was 78.73 million, up 4.5% year-on-year; DAST high-frequency data shows that August passenger flow grew relatively steadily compared to the same period last year, with overall tourist trips increasing; ticket prices rose year-on-year for the full month, but ticket price levels declined in the latter half of the month, with overall ticket price elasticity relatively moderate.

Sector review: Thematic concepts led gains in September. In September 2026, the CITIC Consumer Services sector fell 2.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.3 percentage points. As of September 2026, education stocks led gains, such as Doushen Education, Kede Education, and Gaotu taking the top three spots on the gainers list, presumably driven by AI concepts; some catering and tourism stocks also performed well, such as Xiaocaiyuan (improved operating data), Dalian Shengya (ice and snow concept), and Guilin Tourism, which ranked among the top gainers.

Sub-sector review ① Hotels: September RevPAR continued to increase year-on-year, and new supply continued to decelerate. Data from Hotel Home shows that the hotel industry's August RevPAR data increased year-on-year (weeks 31-35 RevPAR were +0.8%/+2.2%/+2.1%/+7.7%/+0.5% year-on-year respectively), and after entering September, room rates further recovered, with RevPAR increasing year-on-year. By the end of September, the national hotel room supply growth rate had dropped to about 5%. ① Duty-free: August offshore duty-free amount increased 1.9% year-on-year. According to Haikou Customs data, from January to July 2026, offshore duty-free shopping amount/number of items/number of shoppers increased 17.9%/7.0%/12.0% year-on-year. In August 2026, offshore duty-free shopping amount increased 1.9% year-on-year, of which offshore duty-free shopping trips/per capita consumption increased 0.8%/1.1% year-on-year respectively, continuing the growth trend from July (July offshore duty-free shopping amount/shopping trips/per capita consumption were +7.4%/6.8%/0.6% year-on-year). ② Chain catering and tea drinks: Brand operating data diverged. In September, due to a high base for food delivery and constraints on residents' consumption power, most catering brands faced pressure on same-store and per-store operations; Guming, Xiaocaiyuan, Haidilao, and Tai Er demonstrated relative operational resilience. ③ Scenic spots: In September, passenger volume on the Yangtze River Three Gorges cruise (inter-provincial cruises) increased 13% year-on-year, with passenger flow mainly consisting of domestic middle-aged and elderly people; Three Gorges Tourism cruise's September inter-provincial cruise passenger volume was 3,800, up 46.2% year-on-year, accounting for about 3.2% of the total market.

Risk warnings: Continued weakening of residents' willingness to consume, high oil prices suppressing travel, holiday policies falling short of expectations, changes in industry regulatory policies, store expansion falling short of expectations, etc.