金吾财讯 | 中国银河研究指，啤酒行业将迎来旺季与世界杯共振，看好精酿啤酒与区域品牌扩张。1)啤酒板块经营具备韧性，合并25Q4与26Q1板块收入同比+1%，归母净利润同比+27%。2)看好啤酒行业顺价能力，目前铝罐价格同比涨幅明显，大麦与玻璃亦小幅上涨，该机构预计26H2涨价趋势延续，但啤酒行业可通过品类结构优化、减促降费等措施对冲，参考2017年以来成本上涨周期，啤酒行业均实现盈利能力稳中有升。3)短期关注旺季与世界杯催化，一方面6-8月全国天气炎热利好啤酒消费，另一方面世界杯将于6-7月举行，二者共振有望带动餐饮、自饮等场景修复。4)精选具备超额收益的细分方向：①精酿啤酒，行业正处于高速成长期，细分品类龙头金星啤酒凭借差异化产品与灵活的渠道策略，有望充分享受赛道扩容红利；②区域品牌扩张，关注惠泉啤酒，有望受益于福建市场竞争格局。
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