金吾财讯 | 中信建投证券研究指，2026年钢铁行业的核心矛盾，已经从“总量扩张下的周期波动”，转向“减量发展约束下的结构分化”。一方面，行业所处政策框架显著变化：“十五五”开局、碳排放双控体系建立、钢铁纳入全国碳市场履约元年、出口许可证重启，共同推动供给逻辑由传统的利润驱动，转向政策约束+碳成本约束+贸易规则约束的新框架。因此，未来应聚焦三条主线：第一，受益于供给约束强化、成本回落与库存优化的低成本普钢龙头；第二，受益于制造业需求升级与出口结构改善的特钢龙头；第三，具备绿色低碳改造能力、碳成本承受力更强的头部企业，行业整体盈利大概率呈现“一季度筑底、二季度修复、下半年改善但弹性分化”的格局。
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