金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，2026年下半年，全球宏观叙事转向“再通胀下的AI驱动”。中东地缘事件持续激活通胀链条；中国PPI转正外溢；美国服务通胀粘性超预期，三重因素叠加，构成下半年最重要的宏观背景之一。同时，AI资本开支浪潮方兴未艾，技术叙事对资产价格形成底部支撑，亦支持全球经济韧性。此背景下，大类资产配置将转向盈利兑现、定价权和供给约束溢价，展望2026年下半年：1)港股：核心逻辑由“低估值+流动性改善”转向“PPI转正带动盈利上修+AI科技叙事+国产替代”，配置上维持哑铃型结构，一端布局科技成长，另一端配置能源、材料、金融等物价回升受益资产。2)美股：维持中性判断，AI仍是主线，但应适度分散至小盘、金融、能源、公用事业等非拥挤方向。3)美债利率：10年期收益率预计在4.0%-4.6%区间高位震荡，中枢易升难降。
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