【券商聚焦】中金公司:交运板块看好快递航运 关注航空成本改善

金吾财讯
Jul 08

金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示,1H26交运板块下跌16.5%,跑输大盘24.0ppt,细分板块分化,其中油运跑赢大盘30.6ppt;而其他板块均跑输,航空因Q2油价上涨跑输大盘39.2ppt;红利类公路铁路和港口分别跑输24.5ppt/20.1ppt;快递跑输大盘12.5ppt。2H26该机构看好快递反内卷的行情、油运的运价弹性;关注航空油价下行的需求复苏,而非快递物流则需精选个股,红利板块整体仍需视市场风格。快递物流:反内卷依然是主基调,部分公司有望凭借服务品质获取客户粘性实现份额扩张,上半年在基数效应单票利润修复弹性高,下半年业务量增速有望逐步恢复,估值底部值得重视。航运:景气持续1)油运:海峡通行量恢复并非一蹴而就,但在能源安全前提下,全球库存去化带来战储建设诉求和OPEC产量回归、阿联酋增产,油运资产的产业溢价能力提升,有望持续兑现高景气利润弹性。2)集运:远洋旺季提前,下半年近洋和内贸四季度有望迎来旺季。3)关注结构性需求变化带动的航运机会,如干散货航运、汽车滚装船。航空:油价下跌,需求复苏。2H26航空煤油价格有望明显环比回落,航空公司成本改善,随着需求增长,航空票价可能有所提振。非快递物流:1H26板块整体承压,但当前估值均已回落到过去三年均值以下。红利板块:基本面稳健,等待风格切换。1H26交运红利均明显跑输大盘,主要是资金风险偏好导致,但基本面稳健,例如大秦线1-5月运量同比增长约7%,下半年板块催化需等风格切换。

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