金吾财讯 | 国泰海通研究预计二季度白酒继续出清。该机构表示，白酒五一和端午小旺季表现一般，预计部分场景仍然受阻，叠加消费力仍未恢复，使得行业修复时间拉长。7月10日舍得酒业发布白酒26H1首份业绩，据公司业绩预告测算，26Q2收入预计同比-30%、归母净利润和扣非净利润同比转亏。结合5-6月股东大会调研情况及中酒协发布的行业中期报，我们预计白酒行业26Q2报表层面将延续出清状态，仅部分个股有望实现同比持平或正增长；与此同时酒厂愈发理性，厂商关系较为和谐，库存的绝对量稳中有降。本周白酒板块延续震荡行情，考虑到中国证券报方面7月2日曾有“扩大消费十五五规划将于近期发布”的消息传出，该机构认为不排除消费政策刺激的可能性，届时有望驱动相关行业流动性回暖，带动白酒估值修复。
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