有色金属板块强势 五矿资源(01208)涨8.93% 机构指工业金属在降息预期支撑下震荡走强

金吾财讯
Jul 22

金吾财讯 | 有色金属板块强势,灵宝黄金(03330)涨9.18%,五矿资源(01208)涨8.93%,山东黄金(01787)涨6.44%,紫金矿业(02899)涨6.41%,洛阳钼业(03993)涨5.85%,江西铜业股份(00358)涨5.79%,招金矿业(01818)涨5.70%,中国大冶有色金属(00661)涨4.40%。大同证券表示,工业金属在降息预期支撑下震荡走强。美国CPI降温,市场普遍押注9月美联储降息,美元走弱利好以美元计价的基本金属。铜矿前期减产逐步传导至冶炼环节,粗铜供给收紧,电解铜出现淡季逆周期去库,现货升水走高,铜价突破前期震荡区间。铝端光伏、新能源车压铸订单放量,带动铝棒加工费回暖,叠加铝土矿供应扰动推高氧化铝价格,电解铝成本抬升,行情韧性突出。贵金属行情逻辑完成切换,地缘缓和带来的避险溢价消退,市场重心转向走低的美国实际利率。非农与通胀数据同步走弱,美债收益率下行,黄金持有成本下降,ETF与长线资金持续增配。尽管央行短期购金节奏小幅放缓,但全球去美元化长期趋势不变,金价回调阶段各国仍主动增持,底部支撑牢固。目前金价高位震荡蓄力,短期波动收窄,消化获利盘后仍具备上行空间。

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