金吾财讯 | 据外媒周二报道，费城联邦储备银行主席、今年FOMC轮值票委安娜·保尔森发表文章称，对于美联储后续利率走向将保持开放态度，政策调整将完全取决于核心通胀的实际演变趋势。保尔森提出两种宏观情景。其一，若通胀持续改善、物价预期保持稳定，代表当前利率具备适度限制性，能够在合理时间内推动通胀回落至2%目标。第二种情景则是，倘若核心通胀依旧顽固居高不下，现有利率的紧缩力度或将不足，届时就需要进一步收紧货币政策。她估算当前美国核心通胀大致处在2.4%-2.8%区间，强调近期通胀好转仅仅是阶段性进展，不能据此过早乐观。上周美联储完成连续第五次维持利率不变，但内部分歧加剧，有三名政策委员投下反对票，主张立即加息25个基点，以防范后续需要更大幅度加息的风险。最新6月PCE物价指数出现环比回落，剔除食品能源的核心指标也低于市场预期，同时实际消费支出维持韧性，给政策层带来一定喘息空间。保尔森同时点出两大外部扰动因素：中东地缘冲突推升能源价格，带来通胀上行风险；AI基建大规模扩张，在拉动经济增长之余，也造成部分领域的价格压力。劳动力市场目前整体维持平稳。
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