中金公司:美国通胀或已进入新的阶段 通胀持续的时间可能相应延长

智通财经
Aug 13
【中金公司:美国通胀或已进入新的阶段 通胀持续的时间可能相应延长】中金公司研报认为,美国7月CPI季调后环比上涨0.1%,同比3.4%,核心通胀环比0.2%,同比2.5%,均符合市场预期。能源价格继续回落,但8月以来国际油价重新走高,增加未来能源价格不确定性。核心通胀方面,商品偏强,服务偏弱,尤其是计算机、软件等信息技术产品价格持续上涨,反映AI资本开支扩张带来的供需错配正逐步向消费端传导。我们认为,美国通胀或已进入新的阶段,其驱动力正由关税、油价等供给冲击,逐步转向AI投资带来的需求扩张,通胀持续的时间可能相应延长。对美联储而言,这份数据缓解了短期加息的压力,但相较于供给推动型通胀,需求拉动型通胀更需要决策者加以关注。

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