【券商聚焦】交银国际:港股保险股估值仍处历史低位 安全边际充足

金吾财讯
Aug 19

金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指,国家金融监管总局近期数据显示,1H26全行业保费收入稳定增长,其中受1Q26“开门红”拉动,寿险保费收入2.4万亿元,同比增长4.7%;进入2Q26后,高基数因素造成寿险保费增速短期承压,但财产险保费企稳、业务结构持续优化,其中健康险、责任险、意外险分别同比增长15.3%、8.1%和7.6%。从支出端看,2Q26以来赔款与给付支出增速明显放缓,寿险赔款同比由正转负,财险赔款同比微降。自然灾害直接经济损失同比下降22.1%,有利于财险公司控制赔付支出并改善承保盈利。1Q26资本市场波动导致部分保险公司投资收益及公允价值变动受到阶段性影响;2Q26以来资本市场明显企稳向好,上证指数、沪深300分别上涨5.2%和11.9%,投资收益边际改善有望驱动上市保险公司上半年盈利出现较大幅度回升。其中,中国人寿(02628/买入)、中国太平(00966/买入)等先后发布业绩预增预告,预计上半年归母净利润同比分别增长215%及85%以上,较1Q26表现明显改善。今年上半年港股保险股经历较大幅度调整,7月以来虽有一定反弹,但整体估值仍处历史低位,安全边际充足。在资本市场回暖与行业盈利修复共振下,龙头险企具备较好的配置价值,其中中国人寿、中国太平、中国平安(02318/买入)等凭借银保渠道优势及较强的资产负债管理能力,在压降负债成本、提升资产收益方面更具韧性;中国财险(02328/买入)等受益于业务结构优化与赔付压力缓解,承保利润改善趋势明确。

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