金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，全球市场不确定性增加，关注市场波动。7月全球资本市场波动加剧，韩国股市振幅较大，美股也有调整，其中纳斯达克跌幅最大。美伊地缘局势短暂缓和后，局势的不确定性再度上升。7月美联储虽然按兵不动，但是市场加息预期已经先行，新任联储主席亦减少市场前瞻指引，美国货币政策不确定性明显上行，预计市场的波动率或维持相对高位。港股具备进一步上行基础。港股恒生指数和恒生科技指数在6月调整后，7月均触底反弹，受益于流动性回升、估值修复和盈利改善，未来或具备进一步上行的基础。美国的通胀数据更接近3%而非2%，使得美联储实施降息较为困难。三季度按兵不动的概率仍不低， 8月无议息会议，9月加息的概率仍不高。美联储按兵不动仍是基准情形。
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