金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，华润啤酒（00291）2026年上半年录得收入同比增长1.2%至242亿元（人民币，下同），其中啤酒业务收入同比增长2.2%，整体表现稳健。啤酒销量同比增长1.7%至660万千升，优于同业表现；次高档及以上产品销量同比增长超过10%，高端化趋势延续。利润端，包材等成本上涨对利润释放形成一定拖累，同时白酒业务仍处于调整阶段；最终剔除深圳总部相关收益影响后，上半年EBITDA同比下跌约1.2%。短期来看，3季度以来的台风及降雨对部分核心销售区域旺季需求形成扰动，或增加下半年销售的不确定性。同时，考虑到原材料成本上涨令啤酒业务利润率提升节奏慢于此前预期，且白酒业务仍处于调整阶段，该机构下调公司2026-28年经调整净利润预测3-6%，并下调目标价至32.00港元。总体来看，公司啤酒主业总体表现稳健，高端化的长期趋势未变；同时，公司经营性现金流及净现金充裕，管理层提到中长期其派息率有望逐步提升至60%，并向70%方向推进，股东回报有望持续改善。因此，华润啤酒仍是该机构啤酒行业首选，维持买入评级。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.