金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示，1H26全球LNG供应转为收缩，亚洲为主要需求调节方。据路透统计，1H26全球LNG出口量2812亿方，较1H25下降约58亿方，1-2月累计的约100亿方增量供给已在3月至6月消纳完毕。从主要进口区域进口规模看，进口减量较为明显的区域为东北亚地区，欧洲LNG进口量相对稳定。中国天然气短期需求承压，“十五五”中后期有望恢复增长。1H26全国天然气表观消费量同比下降2.4%，高气价下工业及发电用气受到煤炭、新能源替代，中金公司预计2026-2027年需求仍偏弱。“十五五”期间国产天然气年均增量约50-60亿方，增速较“十四五”放缓；随着2028年后全球LNG供需转松及国内价格机制进一步完善，中国天然气需求增速有望重新回到中高单位数水平。
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