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【券商聚焦】中国银河：下半年铜矿仍面临较大不确定性，乐观预期供应增量8-10万吨

金吾财讯
Aug 27

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券研究指，通过对主要矿企产量分析来看，上半年全球前21家矿企产量724万吨（部分未公布二季度财报为估算），同比减少近30万吨，其中仅MMG、紫金、riotinto、teck、vale五家矿企完成了50%以上的年度生产任务，安托、第一量子、艾芬豪、amman任务完成度低于45%，codelco二季度财报尚未发布，但该机构认为完成134.5万吨年度生产任务的年度较大，实际产量或与去年的130.7万吨基本持平，若将其年度生产计划下调到130.5万吨，铜矿增量下降到8.7万吨，但各矿企能否按计划达成年度生产计划仍是个未知数。此外还需关注厄尔尼诺对智利、秘鲁等铜矿主产国造成的影响。整体来看下半年铜矿仍面临较大的不确定性，矿端扰动不断，乐观预期下铜矿供应增量为8-10万吨，悲观情况增量可能会降到0下方。该机构提到，铜矿供应端扰动不断，加工费跌至-182.14美元/吨，硫酸价格松动，冶炼厂利润受到明显挤压。同时受反向开票和打击开票经济的双重影响，含税废铜供应不足，加剧了冶炼厂原料采购的难度，国内冶炼厂产量低于预期水平。美国继续虹吸全球精炼铜，非美地区供应紧张，lme和国内库存持续去库，反复逼仓的风险提高。

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