东吴证券:看好未来两年铜价表现 资源标的优先享受利润

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【东吴证券:看好未来两年铜价表现 资源标的优先享受利润】东吴证券研报表示,供给端矿端长期处于防御性资本开支阶段,全球铜矿的干扰率处在历史相对高位,初步预估2026年铜矿供应增速1%。同时,国内废铜供应受政策影响而收紧,原料端有所损失。冶炼端面临历史极低TC/RCs水平,产能利用率或受限。观需求端,AI热潮带来的设备落地需求,叠加汽车行业受新能源汽车渗透率提升而增加用铜量,今年铜增速有望打开至4%。就供需平衡来看,2026—2027年全球全元素呈现供需缺口状态。关税仍悬而未决,非美地区库存不断往美国运输,导致非美地区更容易发生现货紧张,甚至是低库存下的挤仓风险,套利行为或持续推高铜价波动。看好未来两年铜价表现,资源标的优先享受利润,同时,冶炼利润筑底预期亦较强。关注:紫金矿业、五矿资源、洛阳钼业、西部矿业、金诚信、中国黄金国际、藏格矿业、中国有色矿业、铜陵有色、江西铜业、云南铜业、金浔资源等。

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