金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券研究称，1）铜：宏观扰动加大，短期以震荡为主。上周美国非农明显超预期，推动9月加息预期回升，美元及美债收益率走强压制铜价，后续关注通胀数据对政策预期的验证。另一方面，美国精炼铜关税仍待明确，政策预期推动铜向美国流入，叠加矿端供应约束，支撑资源稀缺性溢价。预计政策明朗前多空博弈加剧，铜价及相关股票维持高位震荡。2）铝：国内去库加速，铝价偏强震荡。宏观方面，美联储加息预期升温。需求端，上周铝加工龙头企业开工率回升至61.0%，旺季效应初步显现；8月铝加工PMI录得48.7%，9月有望重返扩张区间。库存端，据SMM统计，截至上周四国内电解铝社会库存81.5万吨，周度环比去库2.2万吨。3）锡：供给约束延续，旺季需求待验证。银漫矿业选厂已复产，但采区复产仍待明确，佤邦复产不及预期，矿端偏紧格局未改；需求端逢低补库有所改善，AI相关高端焊料需求保持韧性。国内社会库存结束连续累积、转为下降，主要受刚需补库带动，LME低库存仍提供支撑。股票端继续关注资源禀赋优质、产量具备成长空间的锡资源标的，建议逢低布局。
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