金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研究称，9月以来，美伊冲突的影响持续升级，曼德海峡运力亦受到冲击，全球石油供需平衡持续恶化，国际油价再破百美元大关，成品油市场的短缺更为突出。华泰在此前分析中预测，霍尔木兹海峡二次封锁的伤害可能更大，鉴于冲突影响扩散、俄乌局势恶化、且此前库存消耗和延迟需求等“缓冲”被持续消耗，成品油和其他关键物资（包括农产品）所受冲击可能更大。
华泰的初步结论是，石油供需平衡恶化的趋势可能进一步升级、且短期难以逆转——除了近期中东及俄罗斯等原油开采和运输基础设施进一步受损等因素外，此前对平抑全球油价（意外）做出较大贡献的“中国缓冲”可能也难以维持此前的体量。
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