Tiger Brokers

食品股受挫 康师傅控股（00322）跌2.74% 高盛称尚未看到需求拐点或有意义的消费刺激政策

金吾财讯
Sep 22

金吾财讯 | 港股食品股盘中受挫，截至发稿，亲亲食品（01583）跌5.29%，雨润食品（01068）跌3.85%，康师傅控股（00322）跌2.74%，中国旺旺（00151）跌2.48%，统一企业中国（00220）跌2.14%，中国食品（00506）跌1.36%，中粮家佳康（01610）跌1.31%。国盛证券研究指，1-8月全国社零总额32.8万亿元，同比+1.1%，8月社零4.0万亿元，同比+0.4%，其中商品零售同比+0.3%，餐饮收入同比+1.1%，环比均略有降速。但美国国家海洋和大气管理局预计秋冬出现厄尔尼诺的概率超过90%，Q4出现1950年以来最强厄尔尼诺的概率升至69%，厄尔尼诺对部分农产品的产量及价格形成一定冲击，进一步加重部分食品企业成本压力。高盛日前发表中国消费脉搏调查报告指出，农历新年后消费趋势转弱，与往年模式相若，零售销售增长由2026年第一季的2.4%放缓至第二季的0.2%，7至8月需求仍然疲软。在预期已下调下，第二季业绩及审慎展望并不令人意外；但公司层面分化扩大，具备产品/执行力优势、处于周期复苏路径、受惠渠道转移，或录得海外市占提升的公司，仍能实现盈利跑赢并超出市场预期。该行表示，展望2026年下半年，虽然基数较低，该行尚未看到需求拐点或有意义的消费刺激政策。今年中秋较早或提振9月零售，但国庆黄金周走势为下一个关键观察点。

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