纸业股集体下跌,合丰集团、综合环保集团跌超6%,“金九银十”旺季落空

格隆汇
Sep 22

9月22日,港股纸业股集体下跌,其中,合丰集团、综合环保集团均跌超6%,玖龙纸业跌3%,理文造纸跌2.4%,晨鸣纸业跌近1%。

消息面上,纸浆期货近期大涨(9月21日主力合约涨3.88%逼近5000元/吨),理论上应支撑纸价。但成品纸价格却持续走弱,纸价与浆价的“剪刀差”走阔,行业盈利整体收窄。这意味着成本上涨无法向下游顺畅传导,反而进一步挤压纸企利润。

传统“金九银十”旺季并未带来预期的需求改善。卓创资讯指出,白卡纸市场拐点未现,纸价反季节性下跌趋势确定。瓦楞纸9月以来累计下跌2.24%,白板纸在白卡纸替代冲击下看空情绪浓厚,文化纸供过于求格局未改。中秋国庆订单释放不及预期,纸企成品纸去库存压力加大。

高盛在最新大宗商品报告中指出,纸包装利润率因供给压力同比转弱,预计下半年利润率将持续受压。国泰君安期货分析师也认为,纸浆市场短期虽有边际改善,但整体仍处于磨底阶段,成品纸库存高企、纸企一体化新增产能投放等利空因素长期存在。

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