猪肉概念股盘初走高 牧原股份(02714)涨4.39% 机构指中长期行业仍有较为优秀的中枢利润

金吾财讯
Oct 20

金吾财讯 | 港股猪肉概念股盘初走高,截至发稿,德康农牧(02419)涨7.29%,牧原股份(02714)涨4.39%,中粮家佳康(01610)涨3.26%,万洲国际(00288)涨1.08%,惠生国际(01340)涨1.11%。消息面上,山西证券研究指,截至10月16日,四川/广东/河南外三元生猪均价分别为9.45/11.26/10.13元/公斤,环比上周分别-5.03%/-3.01%/-3.34%;平均猪肉价格为15.70元/公斤,环比上周-2.12%;仔猪平均批发价格15.50元/公斤,环比上周-1.27%。截至10月16日,自繁自养利润为-281.65元/头,环比上周-29.40元/头;外购仔猪养殖利润为-182.03元/头,环比上周-11.11元/头。如果行业继续亏损和现金流趋紧,或进一步驱动市场化去产能,有望为下一轮生猪价格上涨周期奠定基础。国金证券研究指,短期来看,生猪价格仍有下降空间,近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少,同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线,预计整体亏损下行业产能去化,目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看,生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优秀的中枢利润,且非洲猪瘟之后行业的快速扩张中,仍有大量企业是低质量扩充产能,行业成本方差依旧巨大,头部企业有充足的超额利润释放,建议优选低成本的优质企业。

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