文/新浪财经香港站 王柳潞
大华继显发研究报告表示，维持宁德时代（3750.HK）“买入”评级，将其H股目标价下调40.7%，由675港元降至400港元；同时下调其A股（300750.SZ）目标价41.4%，由585元人民币降至343元人民币。
大华继显指出，目标价调整系基于经下调后明年预测市盈率15倍（较历史均值低一个标准差）计算。
报告表示，宁德时代2026年第三季纯利按季下跌5.8%至212.5亿元人民币，表现低于预期，主要因为公司消化出口增值税上调及2%消费税，且未在当季将成本转嫁予下游。
尽管部分税费预计将通过后续提价解决，带动第四季利润率回升，但2027年税务优惠退坡仍将拖累利润率。
大华继显假设税务负担由宁德时代与客户按“50：50”平分，因而将2026至2028年纯利预测依次下调5%、10%及16%，分别至891.21亿、1，048.95亿及1，163.7亿元人民币，毛利率预测亦相应下调至22.7%、22.1%及21.3%。
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